Originally Posted by 757690
When I'm playing poker, I play the percentages, except when there's a huge pot worth more than what I coud win a weeks worth of play, or I'm playing a deciding hand in a tournament. In those case, the stats mean nothing. I have to go with what I think will win that hand, right then, not what will win it 51 times out of hundred instead of 49 times out of hundred.
Ignore whether or not Bailey is a better option than Cueto in San Francisco. That's at best a coin flip, 51/49 as you suggest.
You don't think that Cueto (3.50 lifetime ERA in GABP) is a significant probability increase over Bailey (5.13 lifetime ERA in GABP) for a start in Cincinnati? That doesn't seem like a coin flip to me. That doesn't guarantee results, by any means, but I'd still rather play probability.
I don't think starting Bailey over Cueto is an increase in San Francisco. But that's not the issue. The issue is that if Bailey is going to be the fourth starter over Leake, then I'd say the Reds are greatly better off getting Bailey's start out of the way on the road where they have Arroyo and Cueto pitching games three and four in Cincinnati.