Re: Set your playoff rotation
Originally Posted by Brutus
Ignore whether or not Bailey is a better option than Cueto in San Francisco. That's at best a coin flip, 51/49 as you suggest.
You don't think that Cueto (3.50 lifetime ERA in GABP) is a significant probability increase over Bailey (5.13 lifetime ERA in GABP) for a start in Cincinnati? That doesn't seem like a coin flip to me. That doesn't guarantee results, by any means, but I'd still rather play probability.
I don't think starting Bailey over Cueto is an increase in San Francisco. But that's not the issue. The issue is that if Bailey is going to be the fourth starter over Leake, then I'd say the Reds are greatly better off getting Bailey's start out of the way on the road where they have Arroyo and Cueto pitching games three and four in Cincinnati.
Cueto vs. Bailey ain't no coin flip, I don't care where they're pitching.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. - Albert Einstein