Originally Posted by The Voice of IH
Is my math right?
I have calculated that Arroyo's ERA in his past five games is 3.65
I have calculated that Bailey's ERA in his past five games is 1.84
In Arroyo's last four starts, the Reds have lost all of them. (1-4 in last five)
In Bailey's last four starts, The Reds are 2-2 (but Bailey only pitched four innings last night and went scoreless....Arroyo on the other hand was pinned with three losses) ( Bailey is 3-2 in last five).
Bailey's road ERA, as previous mentioned is 2.32. Arroyo's is 3.57. More importantly is the major difference in Bailey's home and away splits. Arroyo on the other hand, has a home ERA of 3.98. Not nearly as large.
So not only has Bailey out-performed Arroyo in this last month, but his splits also say he should be pitching in game 2.
You are right only if you are a big believer in W-L record and small sample sizes and ignore things like BABIP, HR/FB rate, K-rate, W-rate etc.