I honestly am surprised that people are so willing to buy in to the "Homer has turned a corner" argument when his peripherals are so similar to last year.
If Bailey were say a Kansas City Royal and entering Free Agency, would people want to pursue him for a multi-year deal? We he be on our radar at all?
Here's a guy that might remind you of Bailey a little bit. He's a few years older, but let's just assume this guy was Bailey's age. How much would you pay him?
IP K% BB% HR/9 FIP xFIP ERA
2010 66 19.4 7.6 1.23 4.22 3.90 3.95
2011 186 21.0 6.6 1.31 4.04 3.67 4.55
2012 198 19.8 6.6 1.13 3.95 3.97 3.72
I like Bailey, but unless he gives you a big discount, is he really the kind of guy you want to commit a big chunk of your payroll to? It's easy to think of the upside, but if he gives you 190 innings of 4.00 ERA baseball, how much is that worth?
The guy above was on 1 year deal in 2011 making $1.5MM and signed a 2 year, $10MM deal with an $8MM third year mutual option. How much more would you give Bailey?