You make some valid points. If Stubbs remains consistent throughout the playoffs, and clearly that remains to be seen, I dont believe that will be luck. There's no question in my mind that Stubbs has the tools....unfortunately he's gotten progressively worse over the course of the past three years...but he does have the tools. So if he gets it done during the playoffs I will believe it's not luck but him using his talents to string good games together.
He's done it before...like the massive hot-streak he ripped off the 10 games before the trading deadline this year (after which he went completely in the tank). So I'm not going to be fooled again that he's turned the corner...but he does have the ability.
I do know this....when he's in centerfield and the ball's hit in the air in that general vicinity....it's an out.
Originally Posted by scott91575
It was stating that if I was pulled out of the stands, and actually hit a home run, it would be luck. It is an example of an extreme case. I am not saying I am like Drew Stubbs or as good as Drew Stubbs. I was making the point just because someone does something that actually works out does not mean it was a good call or some well thought out plan. That is why I used that example. Using an extreme example to make a point is not uncommon.
Anyway, we are talking about a guy who OPS'd around .600 for the year. He OPS'd under .400 in Sept/Oct. Just think about that for a second. Under freaking .400 for over a month. Then people (or person) are saying if he succeeds in the playoffs it's not luck, but a good call by Dusty. No, in fact, that is damn near the definition of luck born out of stubbornness. You take something that has proven to be poor over a long stretch of time, with statistically relevant samples, and still continue to do it hoping things change is not only insanity but if it works out is a clear example of luck. Can it happen? Sure. Yet it if does happen, from everything we know, it will be luck. There is way too much data to think otherwise.
Drew could maybe one day turn it around. Yet after all we have seen this year, the thought he will suddenly turn it around in this year's playoffs is not a sound idea. If he suddenly turns into a star in the playoffs, it will indeed be luck. That has been my only point all along.