Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
With zero outs, no, it was not the epitome of smart baserunning. It is the epitome of dumb, dumb baserunning. It's not why the Reds lost the series, but in no way is that smart baserunning.
Any attempt of advancement that takes a perfect sequence to throw you out is smart baserunning. And for a second time, it took a clean play and a good throw to get him out. That absolutely is good baserunning.
The advantage of getting to third base with no outs is huge. There's almost a .3 run expectancy difference and over 20% increase of scoring a run.
I'd say the chance of a catcher making a clean play and good throw is less than the 20% bump in scoring Phillips took by attempting to go to third.