Re: Phillips' Boner (Fred Merkle)
Originally Posted by Brutus
What Phillips did was the epitome of smart baserunning.
You have second base stolen and the ball gets to the backstop. To get thrown out, the catcher has to field it cleanly and then deliver a good throw to third. If Posey doesn't do both of those things, Phillips gets to third easy. There is absolutely no reason Phillips shouldn't have done it. Just tip your cap to Posey for making the play.
What are the chances Posey makes the play? Because that's what you have to weigh against the marginal gain of being on 3rd instead of 2nd.
Making the 1st out at 3rd is like punting on 4th & 1 from your opponents 40.
Obviously there's a ton of blame to go around in those 3 games and you'd rather have errors of aggression than ones of carelessness. But that one hurt.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.