Originally Posted by Homer Bailey
Can you tell me what the odds for these scenarios?
Runner on 3rd, no out
Runner on 2nd, no out
No runner on, one out.
Now tell me if it's worth the risk to take third? Also, please tell me if its worth the risk to take third, when they have you DEAD, and you're depending on an error from one of the best catchers in the game.
They only had Phillips dead because the ball took a perfect carom back to Posey and he made a great throw. If any of those two things don't happen, Phillips is safe at third.
The way I see it, they had probably an 80% chance of advancing their odds of scoring by about 25% (from 60 to just under 85%) and thusly about a 20% chance of losing roughly 40% (from 60% down to 20%) off their chances.
To me, that's worth the risk.