Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
It was at least 20 feet despite the Giants taking their time getting the ball to Sandoval. He was dead meat and everyone in the stadium knew it.
Nobody knew it until Posey threw the ball to third. That's the point. It wasn't so obvious until the ball caromed back to him cleanly and he delivered a nice throw. Only then was it obvious Phillips was going to be out. But it was not remotely by 20 feet.
It's easy for fans to play the game of risk management with the benefit of hindsight. Regardless, that is not a play that is made more times than not in that situation.
I stand by my belief that it was about 80% chance of gaining 25% chance of scoring versus the 20% of losing 40. I think that's a risk you take.