Originally Posted by Brutus
Nobody knew it until Posey threw the ball to third. That's the point. It wasn't so obvious until the ball caromed back to him cleanly and he delivered a nice throw. Only then was it obvious Phillips was going to be out. But it was not remotely by 20 feet.
It's easy for fans to play the game of risk management with the benefit of hindsight. Regardless, that is not a play that is made more times than not in that situation.
I stand by my belief that it was about 80% chance of gaining 25% chance of scoring versus the 20% of losing 40. I think that's a risk you take.
He had about a 5% chance of making it to third safely. The only way he makes it is if Posey makes an errant throw.
Considering he was out by a mile at third he was still close enough to second base to return to the bag when he saw the ball bounce back to Posey. Posey had all day to carefully retrieve the ball and casually throw to third and still get Brandon by 20 feet.