Re: Reds Arb Eligibles
I think Bailey is a worthy sell high candidate because his peripherals were the same last year and the results were widely different. I think Bailey is a 3.90-4.40 ERA player, not worth paying for at more than 5-7 per year, especially with young pitchers coming on soon enough. He also has an injury history. His no-hitter came against a crushed and defeated Pirates team, a team he happens to dominate anyway (which is good reason to keep him too). There are times when a sell high moment feels right, and most likely you're not really selling high, you just think you are. This is a sell high moment that kind of hurts, but that means you're really dealing, as most trades of meaning kind of hurt for both teams. If you find a top 40-ish prospect that is ready now for Bailey, go for it. I insist it must be for a ready player for 2013. I think a Span + a B- prospect for Bailey and Heisey would be a good trade.