Originally Posted by Brutus
They *might* pass Oregon, but little or no chance of passing Kansas State if K-State wins out. Kansas State has a very sizeable lead on Notre Dame in the BCS. Oregon's is fairly large as well, but not insurmountable. What hurts Notre Dame is that Oregon also plays USC, so their best opportunity for big wins would cancel each other out.
While Notre Dame gets kicked in the rear by the computers the next three weeks playing Pitt, BC and Wake, Kansas State and Oregon will be helped if they beat: Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor and USC, Stanford and Cal respectively. Then the final week, while Notre Dame has USC, Kansas State and Oregon still have Texas and Oregon State. The math says Notre Dame needs help to have any chance. They're not going to face Alabama unless the teams ahead of them lose.
I feel more than confident that ND will pass Oregon if they go undefeated. I also feel strongly that ND will play in the title game if they win out, even. It's a big if though, as they have to take care of business the rest of the way.