Re: Trade/Sell High on Homer?
Homer's ERA was 4.24 on August 26th. Then he faced the Astros 2 times, the Pirates 2 times, the Cubs 1 time, gave up 5 runs to the Dodgers and was only asked to go 4 innings vs the Cardinals in the last game of the year. End result, ERA 3.68. Believe me, 2-3 more starts following this stretch vs better teams, his ERA would have gone back up around 4. Bailey is a #4 pitcher who had the best year of his career. The point is, if the payroll is too high, and if another team wants to pay a lot for Bailey, it could end up improving the outlook in 2013, even through 2017 if a cost controlled contributor is brought back. In the end though, I can see where focusing on trading Bailey is the wrong idea. Others are confident the Reds have money to spend. So be it. If the payroll is 96 million this year, what will it be in 2014 when more raises kick in? Are we really seeing the Reds jumping into top 10 payroll status year after year? I think that's what extending Latos AND Homer would signal. I would love that. With those two pitchers you also have the chance to get them for less than a FA pickup of similar value for the next 3-4 years. It just requires the money. I've always seen the trajectory of the Reds leading to some level of sell offs, but right now that hasn't happened, in fact the total opposite did last year. They traded young cheap talent and kept the premier talent. I think the Reds, and their fans, have always wanted to spend a reasonable amount. I hope that becomes 100-120 million in the next 3-4 years. Who knows?