Originally Posted by Kc61
While I wouldn't mind it if Chapman started next year, removing him from the closer spot is dicey.
I would not overpay Broxton or Madson to be the Reds closer. Broxton is spotty and has trouble working multiple days. Madson is coming off injury.
Broxton is worth having for set up money.
Madson is worth having on a two-year contract that locks him up when he is healthy. Or a discounted one-year contract as a set up man.
The problem with Chapman as a starter is that fans start to come up with inadequate closer alternatives for 2013. We saw a shut down closer last year and I'd like one in 2013.
Or we just disagree strongly with your notion of "adequate closer". I don't think you need a 1.50 ERA and 15 K/9 to convert 90%+ of your save chances. In fact, Chapman's 38/43 (88%) placed him 15th in MLB behind the likes of dominant closers Brett Myer, Chris Perez and Frank Francisco. Dominant as he was, how many more games would we have won or lost with Chris Perez or Tom Wilhelmson? Who thought Fernando Rodney and Jim Johnson would have two of the great closer seasons of all time?
Point being, as awesome as Chapman was last year, and has awesome, throwing 70 great innings is nowhere close to as hard nor as valuable as 2-3 times that. And the downgrade from from 70 great innings to 70 just pretty good ones, especially when you consider how many of them are not really high leverage, simply isn't all that big in terms of wins and losses.
Or put differently, if Chapman threw even 150 innings of 3.50 ERA baseball, nobody would be clamoring to put him in the closer role. And when you consider that he's got as good a chance of throwing 200 innings of 2.50 ERA as virtually anybody who hasn't done it yet, it strikes me as as a no-brainer unless you have inside knowledge of injury risk or inability to be effective for more than 2 innings at a time.