Originally Posted by edabbs44
That is a ton of unproven bullpen arms and a couple of large assumptions.
Not sure that this gives me any great comfort in using Chapman in the rotation.
It's a question of trade-offs, certainly. No, this group probably won't be best bullpen in baseball, but who thought the Orioles would have a great bullpen. Who thought the Giants would have a mediocre one?
I agree that this bullpen doesn't inspire nearly as much confidence as one anchored by Chapman, but let's get in to the nitty gritty. Aside from the Masset/Bray injury concerns, who worries you and why? And more to the point, what is our benchmark? And of course, this assumes nobody from the outside is brought in. You can add guys like Tim Byrdak and Mark Lowe for next to nothing to those low leverage innings guys.
I think loss aversion pays a big role here. Especially with the starter conversion being no sure thing (though presumably that would mean a return to the bullpen), it's easier for us to feel the "hurt" caused to the bullpen than the benefit to the rotation. And when we just generalities and narratives, it's makes all that much harder to the tradeoff/ROI "math".