RedsZone.com - Cincinnati Reds Fans' Home for Baseball Discussion - View Single Post

RedsManRick · 11-02-2012, 10:32 PM

I think people are going to be shocked by prices this year. Just look at last year. Look at the Dodgers selling for $2B. The TV contracts are going through the roof. $13MM ain't what it used to be.

Even then, 1 year deals are quite valuable since they're so low risk. With long term contracts, you often have to price in the guy's decline and injury risk. You don't have to do that really in a 1 year deal. Given previous FA prices of ~$5MM/win, $13MM equates to about 2.5 wins. LaRoche put up 3.8 WAR last year and has been about a 2.5 WAR player throughout his career. It's no bargain, but it's unlikely you'll get a better deal on somebody in FA.

The big implication is that they don't have 1B open which means Morse stays in the OF with Harper and Werth. Rumor was that the Nats are hot after Michael Bourn; this would seem to make that less likely -- or at least suggest they'd have to dump one of their corner OFs first.

11-02-2012, 10:32 PM	#6
RedsManRick Stat Wanker Hodiernus Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Chicago, IL Posts: 14,914	Re: Help me understand Adam Laroche I think people are going to be shocked by prices this year. Just look at last year. Look at the Dodgers selling for $2B. The TV contracts are going through the roof. $13MM ain't what it used to be. Even then, 1 year deals are quite valuable since they're so low risk. With long term contracts, you often have to price in the guy's decline and injury risk. You don't have to do that really in a 1 year deal. Given previous FA prices of ~$5MM/win, $13MM equates to about 2.5 wins. LaRoche put up 3.8 WAR last year and has been about a 2.5 WAR player throughout his career. It's no bargain, but it's unlikely you'll get a better deal on somebody in FA. The big implication is that they don't have 1B open which means Morse stays in the OF with Harper and Werth. Rumor was that the Nats are hot after Michael Bourn; this would seem to make that less likely -- or at least suggest they'd have to dump one of their corner OFs first. __________________ Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.