Originally Posted by Slyder
I'm that certain of it. Hamilton is going to get one shot at the really big payday because of the time he missed, he's 31 but his body has to be closer to 40 just because of the wear and tear. When he's in there he can carry an offense but he has missed significant time in almost every season as a pro. I don't see anyone telling him to put off free agency to take a "meager" 13 mil which for a Hamilton would be a bargain and very tradable.
Now I don't see Hamilton getting a Pujols deal (10 years) but he is going to get a pretty significant deal from someone. I would predict probably 5-6 yeas (maybe a couple option years) 22-25 mil per. There's absolutely no way he's going to accept a 13.3 mil offer when it could just take 1 team to go crazy and he end up with an ARod or Pujols type offer.
So again I say 0% he would ever consider accepting that "qualifying offer". Its a no risk deal for the Rangers.
So out of 100 times, you think Hamilton would reject it all 100? No chance of trying to work things out with the Rangers by getting on their good side for one more year and hoping to convince them of a $100 million deal over 4-5 years?
The only 0% chance of making sure he doesn't sign is by not giving him a chance to sign. And that's the whole point... if the Rangers were truly adamant about it, then they'd not take this risk at all. And when I say "risk" I don't see this as a risk because I never bought into the hyperbole that they would not have him back at any cost. I don't think having Hamilton play for $13 million is a "risk" anyhow. But that's really my point... the Rangers never felt like they should sever ties at all costs with Hamilton. They simply are unwilling to commit to him long term which is the real reason they're going this route. They want to save face with the fanbase and worst-case scenario they play out one year at $13 mil and see if they change their minds about a longer deal.