Originally Posted by Brutus
You could have said the same thing for Arredondo last year (8.15 K/9, 5.26 BB/9) when he put up a 3.26 ERA. Yet his ERA improved this year.
You could have said the same thing for Ondrusek each of the past two seasons, yet his ERA has gone from 3.68 to 3.23 to 3.46. All three seasons Ondrusek has out-performed his ERA estimators. One has to wonder if there's a possibility there are reasons for that.
I don't know what to expect out of Simon, but while his HR/FB ratio is part of the reason for the success, he added almost a full strikeout per inning this year and nearly doubled his GB/FB ratio. While I don't expect a complete repeat of this year's success, if he continues those rates, he'll have another very good year. Any reliever with a 7.5 K/9 and over 2-1 GB/FB rate is going to be pretty successful, typically.
Agreed, but now that we've seen 2 seasons of crummy components from Ondrusek and Arredondo I'd just as soon move on before it turns into a gaping hole. I hope Simon does become a good reliever, but last year was his age 31 season and it was the first time he's been anything nore thna a AAAA pitcher. I don't count on him for anything at all.
Somebody earlier said that they think you should blow-up and rebuild the pen every year. With Hoover and Lecure looking pretty decent, the Reds have an oppostunity to replace the question marks, but that means they aren't the replacements for Chapman. The team needs a couple of arms from the outside or one good one and they need to make the same move with Cingrani now that they did with Chapman a couple of years ago,
As far as depth goes, I think the team should non-tender Bray and Ondrusek, deal Arredondo, assume that Masset will spend the year on the DL and that Simon will revert to his Baltimore form. Marshall, Hoover, Lecure form a decent middle of the pen, but they need a couple more role players and a hammer IMO. With Chapman as the hammer, they could still be pretty good. I think Leake and Cingrani should be the role players and with Chapman in the rotation, a hammer still needs brought in. It may not be a Chapman elite level hammer, but a clear late inning presence needs to be added if Chapman s removed.