Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey
Yeah, I never used the word "velocity." That was used by others. My point was that it's no coincidence that the BABIP for Chapman and Leake are so vastly different. It's not just that Chapman throws with excellent velocity (although that's a big part of it). He's just flat out nasty.
So, if you take a pitcher with "nasty" stuff and a pitcher with "Mike Leake" stuff ... how can you view both of those pitchers exactly the same when it comes to measuring BABIP? Aren't there going to be more rocket shots off a pitcher like Leake? Of course. And that's exactly why BABIP is a flawed stat, IMO.
More significantly, a guy like Leake will have a lot more balls in play to begin with. For example Leake might give up 2 hits per inning, Chapman one but they'd have identical BAbip.
4 balls in play/ 2 hits
2 balls in play/ 1 hit
Their BAbip are identical but Chapman is the much more effective pitcher, so what does the stat tell you?