Originally Posted by Blitz Dorsey
OK, fair enough. I think you guys (Sir Charles, RedsManRick) correctly outlined that it WAS bad luck for Marshall in 2012 during his brief time as the Reds' closer. I'm with you on that.
However, would you not agree that with someone like Chapman, there are less hard-hit balls in play than there is with someone like, say, Mike Leake? I just think that while BABIP is a good and useful stat, it does have one flaw and that is pretending like it's the same no matter the pitcher you are facing. Someone like Chapman is going to get a lot more bleeders and break a lot more bats than someone like Leake who we see getting rocked quite often. So, that's where BABIP goes wrong. Overall, I'm glad the stat exists though. It definitely has its place.
To get back to the premise of this thread, it's clear "Chapman To The Rotation?" is by far the biggest storyline of the offseason. Makes things interesting for sure.
I would say that a guy like Chapman there are fewer balls hit at all, hard or not.
But for me, the way I look at it is, the harder the pitch...the harder the hit. The transference of velocity from the pitcher to the bat seems to match up somewhat. A hard hit ball off of a "soft tosser", all of the velocity off the bat (okay, MORE of the velocity) is generated by the hitter. A ball hit off of a 99 mph fastball goes farther/faster it seems. At least that's how I perceive it. I've got no data to back that up. If anybody could verify that, jump on in.