Originally Posted by mth123
Upton is 4 months younger than Bruce with a Career OPS 19 points higher than Jay. Upton's Career OBP is .357 with a .355 in 2012. Bruce has more power, but the two are pretty similar valuewise.
You're absolutely right and I agree with you.
I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.
It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.
This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.
If you think 2011 is the real Justin Upton, then this probably a deal Texas should make, as they’d be buying low on a potential superstar. However, he showed just average power in both 2010 and 2012, and average power from a corner outfielder who strikes out a decent amount isn’t usually the foundation for a true superstar. The flashes of greatness are tempting, and his ceiling is higher than Andrus’, but his floor is also lower and he comes with a higher price tag.
While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.