Originally Posted by Plus Plus
You're absolutely right and I agree with you.
I'm simply saying that Upton's 2011 campaign and Giancarlo Stanton's 2011 campaign are vastly different because of their 2012 campaigns. Upton's 2012 line raises the concern of if 2011 and 2009 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he had OPS-s of .898 and .898, or if 2010 and 2012 are indicatory of his performance going forward, where he OPS-s of .798 and .785.
It makes no sense to trade Cueto (as you surmised earlier), or Latos, or even Bailey for a player that will produce at a ~.800 OPS going forward. It makes less than no sense to include a cheap, above average SS in Cozart and then more minor league pieces in that deal.
This bit came from a fangraphs article that discussed the idea of an Upton for Andrus trade, and describes my point better than I can.
While neither Bailey nor Cozart nor Gregorius are Elvis Andrus, the point stands. If you get 2011, you win just about any trade you can make. If you get 2010 and 2012, you lose just about any trade you can make. When coupled with the outspoken desire for Arizona to trade this seemingly budding superstar, the murmurs about his lack of dedication and effort, the fact that his brother never transcended from "pretty good player" to superstar status (which was the prediction for him as well), and the fact that Texas apparently got up from the table with Arizona and stopped even discussing the Andrus for Upton swap, it kind of sets off some red flags from my point of view.
When I listed what I think it would take to get Upton, there is no way I would actually make any of those deals from the Reds point of view. My point is that I think the idea that Arizona is going to move Upton for the best offer is wrong. I don't cae if no one else is bidding, you won't steal Upton for Leake, Stubbs and Cozart. Arizona can just keep him and I think they will unless they get a kings ransom that solves 2 or 3 organizational needs.
I think the desire to move Upton is exaggerated and can be chalked up to a news hungry media in an off-season with little going on so far. They have to write something, but it doesn't mean they are going to deal Upton just to deal him no matter how poor the offers are. Mike Leake as a centepiece won't get it done. Neither will Cozart.