Re: 2012 Arizona Fall League Discussion
Originally Posted by Cooper
Steve: He might be slightly different in that his speed may help increase his babip -but i do think there will be a correction coming related to babip. What we should do -if we were real stats dudes (and you guys already know this) ...is run a little comp study with an emphasis on body type, handedness, speed to first base, and approach. I kind would think it might be good to throw out post age 35 stats as players get older and lose a step. Keep in mind, I'm eyeballing this, it's not a good study and may be missing a big part of what needs to be taken into account (LD%, K and BB%, ect...).
Ichiro appears to be a good match: his babip up until age 35 looks to be in neighborhood of .360.
Brett Butler .322.
Willie Wilson .332.
Juan P. .314.
Willie McGhee .340.
Mickey Rivers .315.
Luis Polonia .323.
Lance Johnson .306.
Looks like to me that Doug's .330 babip is right in line with these fellows.
I'm not sure if all those guys fit - just an fyi- they all had better babips earlier in their careers than later except for Butler. If i remember right, his approach might have been the most extreme as he really narrowed down what he was trying to do - go the other way and not go that way unless he got a good pitch to hit- he also appeared to bunt about .600 every year. I don't remember his approach being that extreme earlier in his career (maybe manny mota and vic davilillo worked with him, idk).
One other aside: a lot of these guys ended up playing leftfield. Did their lack of overall strength keep them from being able to have enough arm strength to play centerfield? I realize that it's further along on the defensive spectrum, but it does make one wonder.
One more aside of an aside: Stubbs babip was really about 30-35 points lower than his historical rate. Makes me think he's due for a slight upward correction.
Stubbs Babips in the minors (and this was discussed ad nauseum at the time)...353 pretty high. He got a correction when he came to the majors.
Doug -do you know the babip averages for a minor leaguer? I'm guessing the rate is higher at the lower levels.
IMO, Willie Wilson is the absolute best case offensive scenario for Hamilton. If he comes close to that, he'll be a big success. If Hamilton can be Wilson to Votto's George Brett, should be in for a lot of good times in Cincy.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS