Originally Posted by dougdirt
Career years by a bunch of guys not yet at their peak years doesn't make me worried so much about them falling off the map. Injuries, perhaps more so, but I feel comfortable about getting 150 games out of Votto rather than 100 too, so that picks up some of the slack if it does happen elsewhere.
I agree that some (maybe even most) of the younger guys might have just established a new level of production rather than a one-time blip, but odds are some of them did not and will regress. Also, the older guys like Ludwick and Arroyo are highly probable to regress. Either way, the Reds would wise to disregard the temptation to stand pat.
Another thing to keep in mind is the Reds were +5 versus their Pythagorean wins in 2012. Even if they perform exactly the same next year in terms of run differential, they could wind up below their Pythagorean wins and out of the playoffs.