Originally Posted by JaxRed
Phillies finish 3rd (or lower) in NL East. Pujols sets a career low in HR's. NY Yankees do not make the playoffs.
Thought I'd re-visit this. I hit on 2 of 3. My predictions were all based on age catching up to the teams/players.
It's almost hard to remember how much of a juggernaut the Phillies were going into the season. In 2011 they had won 102 games and won the East by 13 games.
Espn had 50 analysts predict 2012 and 14 of the 50 had Phillies in World Series
27 had Phillies winning division and 44 of 50 had them in the playoffs.
But I suspected age (and those injuries that come with age) would take it's toll.
Depth Chart heading into season:
C - Ruiz Age 33
1b - Howard 32 and coming off Achilles
2b - Utley 33 and injury plagued
SS - Rollins 33
3b - Polanco 36
LF - Pierre 34
CF - Victorino 31
RF - Pence 29
SP - Hamels 28
SP - Halladday 35
SP - Lee 34
SP - Blanton - 31
SP - Worley 24
That meant that 7 of 8 positions and 3 of 5 starters were 31 or older.
Pujuols - This was age related also. Pujols was 32 heading into season, and all of his stats had taken a steady 3 year decline. His career low in homers was 34 and he'd just hit 37. I thought he was a good bet to go below 34. In fact he ended up at 30, and all of his numbers now demonstrate a 4 year decline.
I expect his numbers to take a slight uptick in 2013 as he both started and ended the year in a bad slump, but after the slight uptick in 2013, the decline will resume. It's going to get ugly folks. The Cards dodged a bullet on this one.
I was wrong on the Yanks but not by a lot. They did not clinch a playoff spot till 2 days left in season. Their age was starting to get exposed. Barring an infusion of talent 2013 will be the non playoff year.
Their depth chart heading into 2012
C- Martin 29
1b - Texeria - 32
2b - Cano 29
SS - Jeter - 37
3b - Rodriguez - 36
LF - Gardner 28
CF - Granderson - 31
RF - Swisher - 31
SP - Sabathia - 31
SP - Kuroda 37
SP - Hughes - 25
SP - Nova -25
SP - Garcia - 35
Yanks were able to hold off Father Time for one last season, with Jeter having a far better year than in years previous and Granderson, Ibanez, Kuroda among others having good years. But....
heading into 2013:
Texeria has had 4 straight years of decline. His decline was extreme in 2012 so he may even improve a little but the trend is down
Cano had his career year at age 30, so he'll probable decline this year
Jeter would have declined anyway but now he also has an injury
Rodriguez - has now had 6 straight years of decline
Granderson - Although at a very high level, most of Grandersons numbers decined in 2012, so he'll probably start declining
Swisher/Suzuki - Swisher is a FA. If he signs he's a candidate to start declining and the alternative (Suzuki) is 39 and a shell of his former self.
even a lot of the replacements are old: Mariano wants to come back at age 42, Petitte may return (again) at age 40, Ibanez is 40 Andru Jones is 35.
They have a ton of old FA's on the team. Lowe, Chavez
If Brian Cashman really does NOT have an open checkbook available to him this year, we might see how good a GM he really is (or is not).