Re: Would you...Homer Bailey for Wil Myers?
I think fans need some perspective on Bailey. His status was diminished among many because he was promoted before he was ready because the Reds didn't really have anybody else. Then, in late 2009 when he was starting to put it together, he was ridden too hard by Dusty and Dick Pole to a 60+ inning increase over anything he'd done up to that point. The next two seasons he struggled with arm issues as happens frequently when too many innings are forced on a kid age 23 or less.
Now he's come out the other side and established himself as a solid mid-rotation starter with potential for more at age 26. That's the same age as a guy who is viewed as a future ace based on one season in the big leagues that is pretty darned similar. The difference being that the other guy spent 5 years building his legend against inferior competition in Japan while Bailey lost his luster while taking his lumps and suffering abuse at the hands of the Reds management. If he ends up a mid-roation starter in 2013 for around $4 to $5 Million, that seems way more valuable than anything they could get for him. Given what he is and what he could be, I wouldn't deal him for some one who isn't established. Myers might be the next Eric Hosmer or Devn Mesoraco and put up a sub .700 OPS in 2013. Dealing Bailey for that seems pretty darned risky.
If the Reds were a rebuilding team, its a move I'd make, but I don't deal the number three starter from a team meant to contend for a WS title for a question mark. If Bailey is the biggest trade piece on hand (I don't think the Reds have any intention of dealing him), they need to make it count and get somebody with a history of solid production for him. I like Myers a lot, but he's not that guy. I'd happily talk about a package involving Leake, Corcino and Heisey for Myers, but not Bailey.
"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH
Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS
Last edited by mth123; 11-25-2012 at 11:59 AM.