[MrRedLegger]

Apart from a leverage index, could Chapman having his hands in 68 games be a factor, rather than roughly the 30 a starter is involved in? Out of the 68 games he appeared in, the Reds won 60. During the majority of his appearances, Chapman didn't need run support per se when he pitched - just a lead (Which, don't forget, if he starts games he will have to bat). Expanding on the coin-flip example, imagine a coin that would flip heads almost 90% of the time, but only in a certain circumstance. (i.e. the 9th inning) The ealier you flip the coin, chances are that figure will decline. Chapman just might be that coin.