Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
First off, I look at Redmond as an emergency back-up plan. A Matt Maloney type. AAAA player. So I'm not figuring him into any equation to be honest.
Cingrani and Corcino. They're both highly touted and for good reason. But does anybody here seriously see them as ready to be starters in the Majors this season (outside of an emergency spot start)? I certainly don't. Not yet, and not on a contending team. IMO they have to FORCE their way into the rotation. You don't trade away a proven starter to let them slide in.
Leake is highly undervalued here on Redszone IMO. Sure, he was the 5th starter for our club last year and had the worst numbers of the 5. But compared to the rest of the league, Leake was a poor #3 starter, a solid #4 or a fantastic #5 depending on how you want to figure it. Simply put, he was a valuable member of the rotation. And once you factor in his age and cost...VERY valuable. But that being said, Chapman to the rotation seems to be a foregone conclusion so Leake does seem to be the odd man out. But that certainly doesn't mean he goes to the bullpen to be put to sleep as a rarely used long man, and it also doesn't mean he has to be traded due to an "excess" of starting pitching. IMO it means that he needs to go to AAA and continue to start in order to stay on a consistent schedule as a starter. Chapman will NOT be able to pitch all season. Not a chance. Leake is the obvious replacement for those needed starts (and any other available starts to give the other 4 a needed breather). But that's only the aspect of this coming season. There's more to look at...the long term. After this season, Bronson's tenure is most likely done. Leake is the incredibly obvious replacement for Arroyo's role in the rotation. A softer tosser to break up the hard throwers, a control pitcher who's main weapons are off speed and breaking balls, a VERY solid defender and hitter. He is Bronson v2.0. That isn't something I want to trade away to solve a problem for one season.
So basically, in my opinion, the only pitchers we should even consider shopping are the minor league guys. I would prefer to hold onto Stephenson for sure. And one of Cingrani/Corcino would be advisable IMO too. If Cingrani looks destined for the pen, then trading him before that becomes readily apparent to opposing teams might be advisable. But I don't want to see them ditch the idea of him starting before he gets a real chance against AAA hitters. I'd prefer to see both C's starting in AAA all season long and then get september callups.
I just don't get the need/desire to trade away starting pitching because we brought in Redmond. And that's basically what we're saying here it seems. The kids aren't ready and Leake will be needed down the line. Hang onto them. Deal from other areas.
I think it's safe to see Redmond as an emergency starter, certainly the Reds should not plan on a major impact from him this year. That being said, Redmond can fill a rotation spot for a few weeks and give a team with a better offense and still solid defense a chance to win. He shouldn't be written off completely as a useless asset.
As for Corcino and Cingrani, I could see both making impacts next season. If both pitch well in Louisville and a starter goes down June or later, I could see the Reds calling up one or the other to fill in long-term. I would prefer that they get as much seasoning as possible in AAA, but I would have no problem with them getting a taste of the bigs if they are having considerable success in Louisville. I am certainly not prepared to say I would not like to see them start at all next year.
I believe some posters likely undervalue Leake, but some others like me do not undervalue Leake. I see him as a solid backend starter who has additional value because he can field his position and he is not an automatic out at the plate. Furthermore, Mike Leake is very cheap. Therefore, I agree Leake is very valuable, if the Royals or Marlins also think he is very valuable (both more cost conscious franchises than the Reds), then we may have a good trade partner.
You must trade value to get value.
I will admit I disliked Arroyo in 2011 and last off-season wanted to do anything to get rid of him. Well, Arroyo turned in a very solid 2012, and now I would not mind him being a part of the rotation in 2014 and beyond. Just because his contract is up, I am not sure that means he will be gone. He likes Cincinnati and his celeb status here. I am sure he would be open to returning, especially if the Reds have success in 2013.
Therefore, I hope you can see how the Reds could deal one or even two of Leake, Corcino and Cingrani and still have depth.
Leake rotting away in Louisville or the bullpen makes no sense to me. Leake has value right now as a starting pitcher. If you demote him to the bullpen or Louisville, you are killing his trade value.
What do all of you that want to hold onto all of our pitching plan on doing if everyone is healthy (like last year)? You don't want to keep both Redmond and Leake in Cincinnati as longmen, do you? If you do that, you lose at least one, if not two of Arredondo, LeCure, Simon or Hoover from the Cincinnati pen.
The Reds have too many good pitchers for too little open spots. The Reds should deal one (or two) now and fill our giant hole at clean-up and in left field.