Quote:
Originally Posted by mth123
I keep all 6. Some things to chew on:
1. All 5 starters made all their starts last season. IMO, that actually increases the risk that somebody will spend some time on the DL in 2013 (my money would be on Cueto as the one to miss time). Innings add-up over time.
2. Chapman isn't going to make 30 starts.
3. Villareal and Redmond aren't up to snuff IMO. Those are guys that bad teams would give starts to late in the year when they are out of the race and have dealt their mid-rotation free agents to be for some kids. I don't want them making a start with anything on the line.
4. Daniel Corcino needs a year in AAA. He'd currently be my 7th option, but I'd prefer he not appear on the roster until September.
5. The Reds need Cingrani in the bullpen.
Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Arroyo
Chapman
Leake (Swingman)
Masset/Simon (Mop-up)
Cingrani (LMR)
Lecure (RMR)
Marshall (LHSU)
Hoover (RHSU)
Broxton (Closer)
I'd guess that Leake will make 15 starts or so. I'd be shocked if ends up making less than 10. Trade bait should be Arredondo, Ondrusek, Heisey, Lotzkar, Villareal, LaMarre, Vidal, etc.
Not only do I think the Reds should keep them all, I think they need to sign another vet they can stash at AAA to become the 7th option ahead of Corcino (similar to how they started the year with Jeff Francis in 2012). I'd give Aaron Cook a call for that job.
Next moves IMO
DFA Redmond and Negron. Sign Scott Rolen as a 300 PA 3B. Frazier becomes the answer in LF. Trade some combo of those guys for a lefty bat to share 3B with Rolen and another lefty bat to lead-off and share CF with Stubbs. They'd be ready to win with those moves IMO.
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Problem here is your available trade bait. It will get you nothing of substance.
The Reds need to be willing to make more significant moves. Right now they have no left fielder, Stubbs/Heisey in CF, one lefty in the bullpen, and holes on the bench. At least the LF and CF are important positions with a need for good level talent.
You ain't fixing the holes by trading Villareal, Redmond, Lamar and Vidal. They won't bring real quality. Nor is it likely Reds are throwing much money at big free agents.
Realistically, the team will have to trade from quality pitching depth. This is their area of strength. Leake, Corcino, Cingrani, all are possibilities. Reds will have to add depth with pitchers like Cook, who you mention.
This team was very ordinary offensively last year, as you know. The additions on offense have to be good players who will cost either money, players, or both. Frankly, at this stage, I think Rolen for 300 at bats is very risky and probably does not advance the ball.
Pitching is important but the team has no leadoff hitter and no cleanup hitter right now and some meaningful effort has to be made to acquire them.