Originally Posted by REDREAD
In 2011, Leake had a nice year. Not a given he'll bounce back, but potential is there.
The main problem is the huge dropoff from Leake to Redmond/Cingrani.
IMO, we're going to need 6 starters this year.
Another nice thing is that Leake is inexpensive and still has options. Gives the team a tremendous amount of flexiblity.. The team could sign a FA #6 starter, but you aren't going to get much talent if you expect the guy to potentially sit in AAA. Not to mention, it might take minimum of 2-5 million to get a respectable guy (in addition to a ML roster spot).
I also see Leake as part of the picture beyond this year. Sure, we want to load up for 2013, but that's a lot of talent (Cingrani, Leake and others) for a one year rental of Choo. Compare to what Wash had to give up for Span. Choo is a better hitter, but has less defensive value as a corner OF, and Span was signed to an affordable contract.
I know the board is down on Leake now (much like everyone was down on Arroyo last offseason), but he's a good bounceback candidate, and is cheap/effective.. It's just the orginal proposal is an overpay, IMO.
Now if the Indians want to expand the deal to include Masterson (also rumored to be shopped), then Leake is on the table (I know the Reds would have to ante up more).
We're talking about acquiring a starting LFer with a lifetime .400 OBP against righty pitching. A top notch left handed hitter. He would dramatically boost the Reds offense in the areas of need, LHH, OBP.
Let me posit this. Say you could get Choo with NO guarantee beyond one year. Straight up for Mike Leake.
Is there any question Reds should take this deal?
Leake is potentially a solid finesse pitcher, but I think he is being wildly overrated in these discussions. Leake, Cingrani, and Heisey for Choo? I think I probably make that deal, even for one year. If Choo has a potential interest in extending? I make the deal in a heartbeat.
And IMO, Choo is worth far more than Span. Span is a punch and judy hitter whose last three offensive years have been fair to poor. Choo is just a much, much better player.