Cingrani to me is the real wild card here. Maybe I missed it back in September, but here's a John Sickels write-up on him with a nice tip of the cap to dougdirt
. If the Reds scouts (whose ability to evaluate pitching I am trusting more and more) see Cingrani as a top-to-middle of rotation starter, then I don't do the deal. Choo is turning 30, and there are probably solid options out there with less of a cost. I'll say 'yes' to the question, however, because I don't think most objective observers think Cingrani will be that good.
About the 1-year "rental" thing. One question to ask in evaluating this deal is whether you think Choo will be worthy of a being offered arbitration by the Reds after the 2013 season. If so, the deal is much more palatable, as the Reds would end up with two high draft picks as compensation. And now that this organization is no longer what it was 10 years ago when it couldn't identify amateur talent, and at lease one of those draft picks will probably amount to something good, thus minimizing the sting of losing Leake and Cingrani if one or both of them blossoms into a great pitcher.