Originally Posted by M2
I'm leery of Ellsbury. The thing he has going for him is he needs a big season to get himself a big contract. Marks against him are that he's injury-prone and he hasn't been a consistent producer at the plate. He's a real crapshoot.
I'd be hesitant to part with Leake for him. I subscribe to the notion that Leake's best years are in front of him and, given that he's been a solid pitcher to date, that's a guy I don't want to part with for a one-year fix. Make it Corcino instead and I warm up to the deal a whole lot more.
There are things I like about Ellsbury -- the upside (obviously), the one-year commitment (if it works, great; if not, it's over soon), the left-handed bat, the fit at the top of the lineup and, potentially, a smooth transition to left if the Reds sign him beyond 2013 and Hamilton emerges.
Having said all that, he's still a huge risk and I'm afraid the Sox will expect compensation commensurate with the MVP candidate Ellsbury and not the injury-prone, mostly average Ellsbury. Leake, an effective, cost-controlled starter seems like a high price to pay -- but at the same time, I'm not sure the Sox will be interested even if that's the Reds' offer. He isn't their kind of guy; they don't seem to value No. 4 starters. And there's no way I'd trade Homer for him.
Corcino? I just don't know enough to say yes or no. But that seems more palatable for the Reds -- even if dealing for prospects doesn't seem like a Red Sox move. I guess I'm saying I wouldn't mind rolling the dice on Ellsbury, but I'm struggling to see a trade match that makes sense from both teams' perspectives.