Originally Posted by Superdude
Yea that comp doesn't work for me either. Regardless of career averages, Ellsbury clearly has talent Pagan couldn't even begin to dream of. I don't think Jocketty even looks at this trade unless he believes a healthy Ellsbury is going to produce well beyond Angel Pagan.
Pagan just got a 4-year, $40 million deal. He's not chopped liver. In fact, he's a whole lot better than Mr. Drew Stubbs. If the Reds had signed Pagan (regardless of what you think about the contract), the team would be significantly upgraded in CF for 2013.
And I assume Jocketty is smart enough not to deal for a guy assuming that guy will replicate a career season completely out of step with the rest of his career. I'm sure Jocketty would be hoping Ellsbury could tap into whatever made that 2011 season happen (provided it's not PED-related), but no way is Walt going to pay for him like he's a sure-fire MVP candidate. Ellsbury is an oft-injured, semi-pricey, BA-driven, speed player. He's not a high OB guy and his power was confined to a single season. Taking 2011 out of the equation his ISO is .099, which is on the low side. Pagan has a career .143 ISO.
If you're trading for Ellsbury, you shouldn't pay for him to be any better than his 2009 season - .301/.355/.415. Could he do more? Sure, but banking on it is extremely risky. Given his injury history, there's even a fair amount of risk attached to getting a 2009ish performance from him.