Re: 2012-2013 Bengals Discussion
It depends upon who the 1 loss is to. 3-1 w/ a loss to the steelers and they're just about done for. That means the Steelers would have to lose 2 of their other 3 games (since they would own the tie breaker w/ the Bengals) against San Diego, @ Dallas & Cleveland.
3-1 w/ a win over the Steelers, but a loss to the Ravens brings up a question. For division race, it goes head to head, then record w/n the division. Is the record w/n the division a tie breaker should the Steelers & the Bengals be the only 2 teams involved? If so, under that scenerio, the Steelers would hold the tie breaker (3-3 in division vs the Bengals 2-4) The Steelers would then have to win all of their other 3 games to set up a tie.
3-1 w/ a loss to either Dallas or Philly w/ the Steelers losing only to the Bengals would I think give Cincy the edge. They'd split head to head, they'd have the same division record (if that mattered), but that would give the bengals 5 AFC losses, while the Steelers would have 6 (they have 5 AFC losses today, a loss to the Bengals would be #6)
If the Bengals go 3-1, the Colts just about have to go 1-3 for the Bengals to jump them. The Colts have 3 AFC losses to the Bengals 5, 4 losses total. If the Bengals lost to the Eagles or Cowboys, but won the rest, that would give them 6 losses total, 5 vs AFC teams. I believe the Colts only have AFC teams left, so any losses will be vs AFC teams. If they ended up tied w/ 5 AFC losses, a Indy win @ KC would give them the edge in common opponents (4-1 vs the Bengals 3-2). If they lost to KC, then they'd end up tied in that and the next would be strength of victory. I'm not sure who would win that one, but if the Colts lost to KC, and ended up 2-2, that would mean they'd have to have at least 1 win over Houston which may give them the edge overall.
So while there are a ton of possibilities out there, I'm thinking the Bengals either need to go 4-0, 3-1 w/ a win over Pittsburgh and Baltimore at a minimum, or either Pittsburgh or Indy need to collapse and go 1-3 or 0-4 over the final stretch.
Which brings me to my last point, the NFL really needs to do away w/ these "play the same team twice in a 3 week stretch" I know the Ravens failed in their bid to sweep the steelers, but they got to play Pittsburgh twice in 3 games w/o toothlessraper. That's a huge leg up on the rest of the division (or should have been) that could have been avoided if they had played them once early in the season and once late in the season. If Houston wins this weekend, they'll have the 1 seed locked up prior to playing Indy twice in 3 weeks to end the season, which means Indy could get the same team twice w/ nothing to play for, and a possibility to play a 3rd time in the playoffs, so why show them anything of substance to game plan for. They really need to spread out these division games 1 1st half, second in the second half.