Originally Posted by OneManBand
Sorry but Vance isn't like Mike Leake.. He is a solid #4 and possibly #3. He could probably be more compared to Homer Bailey. His health is a concern but I think the Twins got a good arm for a good defender/bat. The Reds match up better with Colorado in my opinion for Dexter Fowler.
As you said, health is a concern with Worley. He had a good 2011 but regressed quite a bit in 2012. Leake did the same. For their careers, most of their peripherals are pretty close:
K/BB - Leake: 2.54, Worley: 2.45
WHIP - Leake: 1.33, Worley: 1.35
K/9 - Leake: 6.0, Worley: 7.7
BB/9 - Leake: 2.4, Worley: 3.3
HR/9 - Leake: 1.3, Worley: 0.7
GB/FB - Leake: 0.98, Worley: 0.77
So Worley gets a few more K's but Leake has better control, so their K/BB ratios come out to be roughly equal. Their WHIPs are also just about equal. Leake has a much better ground ball rate, but also allows HRs at a much higher rate. Remember too that Leake is a superior hitter for a pitcher, which has some value to an NL club. Worley has obviously posted better results (i.e. ERA) than Leake so far, but I still think their pretty close to equivalent.
I actually think Leake is pretty underrated. Remember that this is a guy who had a great start to his rookie year and a very good sophmore year (3.86 ERA) while skipping the minors entirely. Yes, he struggled some in 2012, but nothing in his peripherals suggests that he won't bounce back and post an ERA a little under 4.00 next year.