Originally Posted by dougdirt
Far to early to call that a win for the Reds.
I loved the trade the day that it happened. I still love it. But I could see where the Reds "lose" that trade in the long run. The Padres have two of their starting 8 out of the deal and control them for the next 5 years, a #4 starter with Volquez and a bullpen arm with upside who has already given good returns in the Majors, though with questions on how long it can last without better control.
I agree we won't know for a few years the final verdict on the Latos trade. But I think we can all agree right now that Keith Law behaving as if the Reds got taken to the cleaners in that deal was way off. Maybe the Reds end up winning the trade, maybe not. But in no way was it some home run of a deal for the Padres. Right now, the trade looks like a win for the Reds, especially with Yasmani's affection for the juice. Volquez was done in Cincinnati. He was the definition of a "throw-in." I didn't like losing Boxberger, but a right-handed middle reliever? The Reds got an even better one by trading Juan Francisco for JJ Hoover. The point is right-handed middle relievers or even set-up guys aren't extremely hard to find. They don't grow on trees, which is why I didn't like giving up Boxberger, but you have to give something to get something. Yonder Alonso was never going to play in Cincinnati due to Votto and his lack of HR power is alarming for a first baseman. He can rake some doubles though and part of the reason his HR numbers were so dreadful in 2012 was because of Petco, of course. I think the Reds always viewed Alonso as a trading chip in the back of their minds and they used said trading chip well.
Overall, the Latos trade looks like a big win for the Reds. We won't know for a few years for sure though. But Law looks clueless for pretending as if the Padres completely ripped off the Reds. I'm not going to link any of his stories -- most of them are Insider anyway. But I remember him ripping the Reds for the trade. Like I said, the next time Keith Law thinks a team trading prospects away wins a trade will be the first. He overvalues prospects in trades. Getting established Major League pitchers like Mat Latos and James Shields is very difficult, especially for small-market teams. I have Wil Myers in my fantasy keeper league and he's no sure thing by any means. He was great in 2012, but was pretty average in 2011 for big-time prospect standards. Many chalked that up to him moving from catcher to the OF, but the point is that it's not like Wil Myers raked every year he was in the minors. And he never showed this much power in previous years. I think it might be one of those trades that ends up being good for both sides. But I had to laugh at Keith Law predictably crowning the Rays as the winner of the deal.