Originally Posted by M2
One other thing to take into consideration is that the Reds led all of MLB last season in the difference between their RC per game (above average at 4.6) and their actual runs per game (below average at 4.13). While there's some randomness built into that, a decent chunk of that inefficiency falls on the void in the leadoff spot. The Reds' lineup didn't work, at least not like it should have. Choo's addition might go a long way toward rectifying that. The potential gain in efficiency would actually be larger than Choo's boost in the RC department. An extra 100 runs from the cumulative effect wouldn't be all that surprising.
I could counter with that Choo or Bruce in center is going to cost our starters pitches and innings (and runs),meaning they throw fewer, leaving more for the bullpen and thus making them less valuable and then adding in a few extra guys who aren't nearly as good to fill in needed innings for those guys.
It kind of goes both ways. Choo is an upgrade to the team, no doubt. I just don't know how much and I don't think something like WAR is really going to tell us because so many other things are being effected by the move that won't show up in an individual players WAR.