Originally Posted by dougdirt
Yes and yes. Let's work under these presumptions that I have about Gregorius. He can hit you 10-15 home runs in a season (not today, but maybe in a year and moving forward). He will walk 6-7% of the time. He will strike out 15% of the time. He will hit you 25 doubles and 5 triples.
Math suggests then that he would hit roughly this:
PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB K HBP SH SF AVG OBP SLG BABIP
600 546 150 25 5 13 39 90 5 5 5 .275 .326 .410 .306
In the above scenario I gave him a 6.5% walk rate and a 15% strikeout rate. That is the kind of guy I see him as at the plate. Not today. But in the near future. At the MLB level.
I disagree with your projections. Gregorius has 20 career minor league home runs in 1,909 career minor league plate appearances. In 561 PAs in 2012, he had 7. This doesn't sound like a guy who projects for 13 home runs in any season in MLB, especially in NL-west ballparks.
I think your overall projections are a direct translation of his 2012 year, and are coupled with optimistic aging curves for him while your projections for Cozart ignore the fact that he had 30 more home runs, 43 more doubles, .010 more OBP despite .001 lower BA, and only 257 more PAs.
I understand that Didi is significantly younger than Cozart, but if one is to project the age 27-29 years as the peak years for a career, and also give Cozart a little bit of wiggle room because of the fact that he went to college and didn't join the Reds' farm system until he was 21 (while Didi was 18 when he was signed), then I feel that hammering on the point of Cozart being the biggest lineup problem for the Reds will be similar to someone watching the Victoria's Secret fashion show and constantly pointing out the "least attractive" girl in the runway show.
It's much ado about nothing. Maybe Cozart ends up being "only" league average for six years of team control. But if the team's biggest flaw is a league average SS, then I will be one happy Reds fan.