Originally Posted by Benihana
Do you think Rogers can be a #3 starter in the majors? Everything I've seen and/or heard has him as a #5 or bullpen guy.
Not sure yet. I think it is hard to project the difference between a #3 and a #5. Mike Leake was the Reds #5 in 2012. In 2011, he was probably their second best starter. Homer Bailey was a #4 in 2012 and in 2011 he was probably #3 even though he actually was better in 2012.
I guess when someone says they project a guy as a #5, that is a way of saying they are not totally sold on the idea that, with his mix of pitches, he can get the same hitter out multiple times in the same game and that he might wind up in the bullpen where he only has to show the hitter his stuff one time.
Rogers has a big league arm for sure. He might be Sam Lecure. He might be something a little more than that. He might be something much more than that.
As we have discussed before, there is not nearly as much consensus on prospects among scouts as you would think. Example: What is the projection for Daniel Corcino? Based on what I read, maybe a #3 starter? I have probably talked to 20 scouts who watched Corcino pitch and at least half said future reliever. He may turn out to be better than a #3, but there are many scouts that do not see him as even a 5.