Originally Posted by traderumor
Begging the question on several fronts.
Was 2012 his norm? Was it in line with his major league/minor league projections? How much of 2012 numbers are attributed to randomness and could fluctuate positively without any additional "improvement"?
Who says a player regresses defensively post 25? While I can see the physical peak aspect, that doesn't mean a late 20s to early 30s player doesn't keep his defensive play in tact, or even improve, by knowing the game better, i.e. positioning, anticipation. It is counter intuitive to say a guy has done as well as he is going to do defensively by the time he is 25.
I think 2012 was about his norm. Scouts have long questioned whether he was anything more than a .240 hitter at the MLB level. He has, outside of one season, always been an aggressive swinger/low walk type of guy.
As for the peak defensive thing, it was from a subscriber article on Bill James online, but was referenced by Rob Neyer here
One of the first things that is becoming apparent from better defensive measurements is that defensive value peaks earlier and fades MUCH younger than offensive value. Players often reach their defensive peak at ages 22-25, and many players are fading defensively by the age of 28, long before 30.