I think you guys will win the Wild Card but I forsee starting rotation problems. I think it's unreasonable to expect another season where no starting pitchers get injured. I also feel that you guys will miss Chapman as closer more than some here realize. Your offense will be better though so it should balance out somewhat.
EDIT: I also picked the Reds to lose in the NLCS. I predict a Reds vs. Cardinals NLCS and I'm not picking against my team