Originally Posted by George Anderson
I really dont follow the reds minor league players like others do on this board but it appears to me that many see him as a cant miss type player and think its a matter of time before he is penciled in the lineup and is a superstar. From my perspective, other than the stolen bases, what is so great or promising about this guy? He has played but 50 games at the AA level with ok but not great results and Baseball America only has him ranked as the 48th best prospect in MLB.
Dont misunderstand, I am not saying I think he will be a dud but until he can prove he can get on base at the MLB level then he could be one of the thousands of prospects that excelled at the lower levels of the minors but couldnt perform at the higher levels. I am sure the reds could bring him up now to steal bases but I think the reds need more than another Herb Washington.I guess till I see him perform at a level higher than 50 games then I cant get to excited about him.
Where am I wrong for those in the know?
Hamilton is not likely to be a superstar in my opinion. His success is going to depend to a huge extent on his OBP and his defense. He is unlikely to ever have much power. Stolen bases are over-rated in terms of their impact on scoring. For his running game to add significantly to his value his stolen base percentage will have to be 85% or better, which is unlikely to happen. Since he has no power his OBP will have to be .370+ and his defense will have to be above average in centerfield for him to be considered a star player.
Most prospect evaluators will have Hamilton ranked in their top 20 best prospects in baseball, most likely in the 10-20 range. He is a very good prospect and is highly likely to have a good MLB career, but I think his star potential is limited.