Originally Posted by REDREAD
That's actually a reasonable quick way to determine the effectiveness of a reliever.
Chapman gave up runs in 8 appearances out of 68 games
Broxton gave up runs 13 appearances out of 60 games last year (one of those appearances was no earned runs).
So if we project Broxton's numbers to 68 games, that means he would've given up runs in about 15 games. The difference between Broxton and Chapman last year could be estimated that Broxton gives up runs in 7 more appearances (roughly). I'm not sure how to project that into blown saves/losses, but it's potentially significant.
It is probably 2-3 games, at worst. Not every game is a one run lead. You don't lose every game in which your closer gives up the lead.