Originally Posted by Brittingham.Sam
As of right now i don't think so. For the sake of my argument i am going to compare him to jim rice.
Rice through his age 28 season stats: 233hr, 731rbi, 1252 hits, .304 avg, .351 obp, .881 ops
Since votto's birthday is in september and he has yet to play in his age 28 season im going to add his Fan graphs projected stats for this upcoming season to his totals.
Votto through his age 28 season: 160 hr, 554 rbi, 1002 hits, .316 avg, 415 obp, .968 ops (since fan graphs doesn't give a projection for hits i gave him 180 for next season which is about career average or him).
They had both won an mvp by this point in their careers and Rice had finished in the top 5 in mvp voting 4 times compare to votto's 1 time. At the same point in their careers Rice was a 4 time all star compared to votto's 3 times. Rice also led the league in total baes for 3 straight seasons becoming the first person to accumulate over 400 total bases in 1978 since 1959. Votto's largest TB for a season is 328 Rice did better than that 3 times. And both of them had missed time due to injuries at this point in their careers.
Rice was on the ballot for 15 years before finally getting voted in. Therefore, as of right now votto is nowhere close to being a shoe in for the hall and he might be more on track to hope for a call from the veterans committee if anything. Naturally this could all change and Votto could win the next three MVP's and the reds the next three world series which would definitely make him a first ballot hall of famer. But as of right now, i don't see it.
This difference between the two I think is era that they played in. Just as a quick counter argument, Rice's career wRC+ is 128, Votto's is 156 (Although Rice's did come down during the second half of his career). So basically, I'll agree with some of the others in saying that if he keeps up his current level of production for at least 5 more years, and has at least 1 or 2 more MVP's sprinkled in there, he'll be in the hall. But if he starts to decline at 30, it'll be a much tougher go.
I think his biggest challenge is if/when voters compare him to Pujols, since they played partly during the same time. Pujols hit the majors quite a bit younger than Votto, and so far, as shown a higher peak.