Originally Posted by RedsManRick
You say this like he hasn't been doing precisely this for years. He has a long track record of pitching this way, relying on the curveball, and allowing a low HR rate. The question is how/why he would stop being dominant in the 9th inning. Does he pitch differently? Does he hang more curves?
First, I haven't said that Marshall can't close. In fact, I said I would bet that he could.
However, HR rate isn't the only or even the best way to evaluate how hard a pitcher gets hit.
Now the last two years, Marshall has been hit the hardest in highest leverage situations, by a significant amount.
High Leverage: .260/.316/.325/.641
Medium Leverage: .189/.250/.203/.453
Low Leverage: .226/.253/.286/.539
High Leverage: .276/.349/.398/.747
Medium Leverage: .212 /.241/.269/.510
Low Leverage: .195/.247/.230/.477
There are a lot of reasons to explain this, and many of them point to him doing better in high leverage situations in the future. But the facts do demonstrate that during the last two years, he hasn't been reliable closer material.