Originally Posted by 757690
First, I haven't said that Marshall can't close. In fact, I said I would bet that he could.
However, HR rate isn't the only or even the best way to evaluate how hard a pitcher gets hit.
Now the last two years, Marshall has been hit the hardest in highest leverage situations, by a significant amount.
High Leverage: .260/.316/.325/.641
Medium Leverage: .189/.250/.203/.453
Low Leverage: .226/.253/.286/.539
High Leverage: .276/.349/.398/.747
Medium Leverage: .212 /.241/.269/.510
Low Leverage: .195/.247/.230/.477
There are a lot of reasons to explain this, and many of them point to him doing better in high leverage situations in the future. But the facts do demonstrate that during the last two years, he hasn't been reliable closer material.
Last two years?
In 2011, in high leverage situations, his OPS allowed was .641. I'd take that from my closer anytme.
So we are left with a very small sample size from 2012. Which screams "small sample size" as the reason why his stats varied in 2012.