Re: 2013 Baseball America Reds Top 10
As J.J. said, there is very little separation in the guys in the bottom half of the top 10 and the next tier of players.
With all of the prospects that, within the last two years, the Reds have either traded, graduated to the bigs, or topped out, there is a huge drop right now once you get past # 6 in comparison to recent years. The players ranked 7-10 on this list would have come in somewhere in the 12-20 window in recent years.
As I have said many times, I would use caution in reading too much into the rankings. There is not as much of a consensus as it often appears. He even says, one scout liked Reynoso better than Winker. You are probably talking about a scout that saw them play five games. Scouts watch five games and move on. I have talked to a thousand scouts and you have to take their comments in generalities. Scout #1, who is a talker, will go on and on about how much he loves a particular player. Scout #2, who speaks in more guarded terms, will hold back and give you the feeling he has some reservations about that same player. Then, you get them to tell you their grade on the player, and Scout #2 actually gave him a higher grade! J.J. does a great job at what he does, but he is going strictly off phone conversations and what people are willing to share. As Doug noted, they had Guillon behind Langfield, Gelalich, and Mejias-Brean in the Pioneer League rankings and now he is ahead of all those guys. There is very little consensus.
Couple thoughts: Lohman-Janish comparison? Worlds apart. Lohman as the #1 defensive infielder is more a statement about all the guys that have left. You have virtually no one remaining that would be viewed as an above average defensive infielder. I would have thought they would have gone with David Vidal in that category.
The "best tools" title is actually a bit misleading. I guess they mean "potential best tools" or something. There is not a single scout who could tell you with a straight face that Yorman Rodriguez has a better arm than Jefry Sierra, but for whatever reason, they give Yorman the nod there, I guess because he is a much better prospect.
His comment that Stephenson has the best arm since Homer Bailey is conservative. Stephenson, at this point, throws considerably harder than Bailey at the same age. You could make a case that Stephenson has the best arm since Don Gullett.
If you were going to try to draw a consensus among scouts, it is this. Hamilton is the Reds best prospect, followed by Stephenson, no argument from anyone. Then there is a drop off. Then you have Cingrani and Corcino. Then another drop. Then most would give Travieso the benefit of the doubt and put him in the next group with Winker and depending on the scout, you could stick one of 10 guys in that same group. Then another drop, and then guys like Guillon, Rogers, Mejias-Brean, Waldrop, Y-Rod, all in that mix. Some guys would have Lutz in that group. Some would have Barnhart in there. Some would have Gelalich and some would even throw Romano in there. Some like Moscot better than Langfield and some vice versa. Reynoso will suddenly start getting talked about, for one simple reason, of course: J.J. put him on the list.
Last edited by redsof72; 01-11-2013 at 11:07 AM.