Originally Posted by Edd Roush
150 OPS points is pushing it. Their career OPSes are only 133 points different and Izturis actually out OPSed Donald by 69 points last year. Donald had a very lucky 2011 in which he had a .423 BABIP which made him look like a better hitter than he is. I am not arguing that Izturis is a good hitter, but sub-Castro is another gross exxageration. Izturis has Castro's career OBP beat by 26 points.
Who are you starting at short when Cozart needs a day off? The guy who has played 571 innings there, all below average using any defensive metric or the guy who has played 9152 innings there all above average? I won't be extremely mad if the Reds chose Donald over Izturis, but I certainly don't think it is a lock that Donald deserves that roster spot over Izturis.
I was using their career numbers on the estimation and adjusting for Donald being in his prime and Izturis well past his. Plus, Donald can get a few HRs out of the GAB.
Castro, with the Reds (which is the reference point I use for him) was a .628 OPS and 61 OPS+. That's better than what Izturis can do these days.
And Cozart's likely to start 150 games this coming season. Izturis is completely useless on the bench. He can't PH, he's past being a PR, he isn't going to the Reds' best defender at any position. It's like having a 24-man roster. I'd much rather give Donald those starts. He played 415 games at SS in the minors and he'd have played more of it in the majors except Asdrubal Cabrera had that position locked down in Cleveland. Donald won't be anything flashy there, but he'll supply Keppinger-level defense. He's shown some ability to hit LHPs (something the Reds need off the bench), he's got a little speed, he offers better positional versatility (Donald can play OF if needed). I'll take the guy who has uses in 162 games over the guy who only has a use in 12.