Originally Posted by Superdude
I guess projecting is the wrong word. Translating maybe? Pitching, as a fixed skill, is easier to gauge than hitting skill is IMO. Obviously pitchers are unique in that they can completely lose that skill, making them less projectable, but I still think the skill itself is easier to judge. For instance, all injury risk aside, I think Stephenson has a better chance of being an impact player than Hamilton does. We still have no idea how Hamilton's bat is going to adapt to big league pitchers who know every hole in his swing. Stephenson's stuff, if developed properly, is going to be extremely hard to hit no matter who's in the batters box.
Well, if you take injury and the maddening frequency with which pitchers lose their stuff out of the equation, I'd argue you don't have much of an equation, but I suppose you could then make a case either way.
You really don't how well a guy's stuff will play up a few levels. For instance, not all 100 MPH heaters are created equal. Sometimes hitters at higher levels feast on breaking stuff that allowed a pitcher to plow through A ball. Sometimes at higher levels a slight lack of command becomes a tragic flaw.
I'd say hitters and pitchers generally face similar adjustment challenges as they move up the ladder. The next level always comes with the possibility of exposing your flaws. Pitchers, however, are vastly more likely to suffer a critical injury or to lose their stuff, which makes them a harder projection.