Originally Posted by M2
You really don't how well a guy's stuff will play up a few levels. For instance, not all 100 MPH heaters are created equal. Sometimes hitters at higher levels feast on breaking stuff that allowed a pitcher to plow through A ball. Sometimes at higher levels a slight lack of command becomes a tragic flaw.
I'd say hitters and pitchers generally face similar adjustment challenges as they move up the ladder. The next level always comes with the possibility of exposing your flaws. Pitchers, however, are vastly more likely to suffer a critical injury or to lose their stuff, which makes them a harder projection.
You're sort of expanding my point into performance when I'm talking about "skills" only. All of those flaws are easily spotted by any scout. It's the reason Chris Manno is an irrelevant prospect right now.
I don't think you could even draw data on this, but how many pitchers were projected to be great and failed inexplicably without any injury, loss of command, etc.? I'm going through baseball america's top 100's and it seems like the vast majority of pitchers turned out to be who we thought they would be, unless of course they got hurt or lost velocity or something like that. The hitters on the other hand are littered with guys who, without any explanation or reason, just couldn't hit upon reaching the big leagues. The scouts just flat missed and missed badly on a whole bunch of hitters.